Autores: Lykke E. Andersen y José Luis Evia
Entre 1997 y 2002, Bolivia recibió más de $US 3.000 millones en ayuda externa oficial y más de $US 3.500 millones en Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED). El paÃs también logró la condonación de parte de su deuda externa con un valor neto presente de $US 1.300 millones e implementó una Estrategia Nacional de Reducción de Pobreza. Sin embargo, durante el mismo perÃodo la tasa de crecimiento del PIB pasó de 4,7% entre 1993 y 1998, a 1,7% entre 1999 y 2002, la pobreza relativa y absoluta aumentó, y el déficit fiscal alcanzó elevados niveles (8,7% del PIB para el 2002).
Estas cifras sugieren que la ayuda externa, la inversión extranjera y el alivio de deuda no tienen la capacidad de poder aumentar la tasa de crecimiento y disminuir la pobreza en Bolivia.
Usando un modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (CGE) el presente documento estudia el impacto de la ayuda externa tanto a nivel agregado como en su impacto distributivo. Asimismo, se simula un aumento transitorio de la ayuda externa y su impacto en el largo plazo.
Finalmente, el documento provee una serie de recomendaciones para obtener el mejor impacto posible de los recursos comprometidos por la ayuda externa.
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Autor: Patricia Miranda, Fundación Jubileo
Este artÃculo resume la presentación hecha por la Red Latinoamericana sobre Deuda, Desarrollo y Derechos (LATINDADD) en la 3ª reunión de alto nivel del Consejo Económico y Social de Naciones Unidas.
En la presentación se demandaron los siguientes puntos:
• Una distribución más equitativa de la AOD que actualmente es efectuada de forma desigual, con énfasis en algunos paÃses o algunos sectores como los gastos militares.
• El alivio de deuda ha reducido la disponibilidad de préstamos concesionales (baratos), que están siendo reemplazado por financiamiento alternativo más caro (principalmente por la deuda interna). Se plantea que en los análisis de sostenibilidad de deuda se considere el endeudamiento externo e interno y un enfoque de desarrollo humano.
• Se plantea que la calidad del financiamiento puede ser mejorada a través de la eliminación de las condicionalidades, un fortalecimiento de capacidades, en lugar de asistencia técnica y el incremento en la participación de la sociedad civil.
• Siendo los paÃses desarrollados son los principales generadores de dióxido de carbono, éstos deberÃan incrementar los recursos para la inversión social y ambiental que el cambio climático genera en los paÃses en desarrollo
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By Ruth EspÃnola Soriano de Mello
The author provides a summary of the conflicts and challenges in defining the Bank of the South’s foundation. Delays on defining key issues, such as objectives, structure and guidelines, among others, are related with important differences that exist among the countries.
Key areas of potential conflict have to do with the Bank’s role (regional central bank or traditional development bank), the composition of the capital stock, and the decision-making system (“one country-one vote†opposed to “one dollar-one voteâ€).
The establishment and consolidation of this new regional financial entity depends on the negotiations currently underway. Since so far the Bank’s foundations have been defined by the national executive branches, one of the major challenges is to incorporate legislative bodies, civil society, and social movements into the dialogue.
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Source: Bank Information Centre
The Bank's Employee Association sent a letter to IDB President Luis Alberto Moreno on June 6 expressing "deep concern" about the IDB's upcoming realignment.
The irregularities of Luis Alberto Moreno (an intimate friend of Uribe and Bush) within the IDB are now surfacing. The employees of the Inter-American Development Bank have had to start making public their differences with Moreno’s lack of transparency and irregular management.
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Source: Social Watch
This article proposes to analyse if the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) has represented a change in focus and in policy, in comparison with the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) and the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF) which preceded it. eoliberalism, which as been the political and conceptual support for the structural reforms promoted during the last two decades in Bolivia and in the majority of the other countries in the region, has understood poverty and actions to reduce it as a separate field of action from that of the direction of economic policies with respect to income distribution. Under this logic, macroeconomic and social policies should be based on the dominance of market forces so as to achieve not only efficiency in resource allocation, but also to achieve economic growth, seen as the only path to sustainability.
Although the emphases of social policy have varied, throughout the process the idea of ‘trickle-down’, which supposes that the social conditions of the population will improve as a quasi-“natural†result of economic growth, has prevailed. Taking into consideration the poor results of the ESAF with reference to poverty reduction, the World Bank and, later, the IMF, have developed in recent years the proposals of Growth and Poverty Reduction Services and Poverty Reduction Strategies.
The first part of this article demonstrates that these proposals continue to analyse poverty within the framework of the neoliberal model’s own logic - thus confusing the structural causes of social phenomena with their uperficial expressions - and, in consequence, will have results which are little difference from those of the ESAF. The second part proves that the proposal of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, concerning the participation of civil society in the formulation of policies (including ose in the macroeconomic field), is largely talk with little practical impact.
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Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribeean
This document analyses the origins and consequences of debt accumulation in the Caribbean. The focus is placed on Caribbean Community (CARICOM) economies. The document also examines current strategies for the reduction of debt.
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Source: Bank Information Center
In the midst of strident protests in opposition to President Bush’s visit and the crush of an embarrassing political scandal, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) will struggle to showcase its development achievements in Guatemala and Latin America during its Annual Meeting (March 16-21, 2007).
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Source: Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean
One of the central aims of the accelerated negotiation process of the Doha round, which is currently taking place in WTO, is to tackle the development dimension of the multilateral trading system. Few results have been achieved in relation to this objective, however, since the beginning of these negotiations at the Fourth WTO Ministerial Conference held in Doha at the end of 2001. In this context a new element, or possibly a new approach, has been introduced into the debate and was included in the final declaration of the Sixth Ministerial Conference held in Hong Kong at the end of 2005 (ECLAC, 2006a).This declaration added to the work of this Round a greater commitment to Aid for Trade, which is intended to help developing countries, particularly the least developed countries (LDCs), to build or develop the capacities that will assist them to implement and benefit from WTO agreements.
Aid is not a substitute for other aspects of the development dimension covered by the present Round and in particular for greater market access opportunities for developing countries’ exports. This issue is of great interest to the Latin American and Caribbean countries, since they are all developing nations (Haiti alone is in the LDC category), and their trade, economic and social performance has lagged behind that of other economies at a similar level of development.
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Author: Lykke E, Andersen and Jose Luis Evia, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio Economicas
Source: Global Development Network
Theoretically, foreign aid can be an important ingredient in the development of a host country. Between 1997 and 2002 Bolivia received more than $US 3,000 million in foreign aid and more than $US 3,500 million in foreign direct investment (FDI). The country also received debt relief and implemented a National Poverty Reduction Strategy. During the same period, however, the GDP growth rate fell, relative and absolute poverty increased and fiscal deficit also increased. These figures suggest that neither foreign aid, nor debt relief, nor FDI has the capacity to increase growth rates and reduce poverty in Bolivia.
This paper analyses the effects of changes in foreign aid on GDP growth rate, the balance of payments and the fiscal deficit. It also investigates the distribution effects of aid. A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the effect of additional foreign donations of $258 million per year for 4 years on top of ‘normal’ levels of aid.
The paper concludes that whilst projects may be successful at a micro-level, aid can have adverse macroeconomic effects leading to increases in inequality and deepening poverty. The paper provides recommendations for donors and government to ensure that foreign aid has the largest and most sustainable impact possible.
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Source: EURODAD
This article describes how Nicaragua’s recently elected government, amidst calls for change from civil society groups both internally and externally, has started talks with the IMF to discuss future relations. Meanwhile, in Ghana, the government has decided to withdraw from the IMF’s PRGF. The article argues that by withdrawing from the PRGF, Ghana takes a major step toward economic independence from the IMF.
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