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Forum for the Future of Aid

Southern Voices for Change in the International Aid System Project

The Forum on the Future of Aid is an online community dedicated to research and opinions about how the international aid system currently works and where it should go next

organised by ODI

External debt and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries: an econometric study

Source: African Economic Research Consortium

Can debt cancellation stimulate investment recovery and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa?

This paper assesses whether the cancellation of debt could provide the stimulus to investment recovery and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper challenges traditional debt relief mechanisms. The paper concludes by claiming that traditional debt relief mechanisms currently being used by SSA countries have had limited results.

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Do HIPC debt Initiatives really achieve the debt sustainability objective? Uganda’s experience

Source: Economic Policy Research Centre

The paper begins by examining why debt is a problem, and presents several reasons against over borrowing. Next, the paper investigates the status of Uganda’s external stock of debt including the current stock and disaggregation of debt by creditor category. The different strategies undertaken by the country to reduce its burden of debt servicing are addressed. These strategies include negotiations with the Paris Club, a debt buy-back plan and restructuring of unsecured commercial debt, debt conversion, multilateral debt fund and HIPC Debt relief initiatives. Finally, the paper analyses the sustainability of Uganda’s debt. The paper concludes that debt relief itself doesn’t necessarily bring about long-term debt sustainability. Sound policy and institutional frameworks, adequate debt management capacity and a diversified export base are also required.

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Implications of a Major Increase in Aid to Africa: The Case of Zambia

Source: SARPN

If all the international debt Africa owes were cancelled today and if aid trebled instantly, would there be an immediate positive impact on the continent’s developmental aspirations in general, and would poverty be reduced significantly in particular? To what extent are aid levels important in finding a solution to Africa’s economic and social malaise? How much evidence exists that shows the correlation between significant aid flows and improvements in economic and social welfare in recipient countries? Do institutions matter and to what extent does the policy environment influence the degree to which aid can improve conditions in the recipient countries? Does the mode in which aid is transferred to sub-Saharan Africa matter and what issues need to be attended to in the current aid architecture to address the seemingly growing, cruel realisation in the average African country that, in spite of aid, the prospects of attaining theMillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs) by 2015 are gradually diminishing?

The above questions are particularly pertinent in the light of increasing calls from a host of sources, including The Global Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals, for increasing aid flows to developing countries. I focus here on experiences from Zambia, one of the poorest countries in Africa where, despite significant aid volumes, poverty levels are worsening, with life expectancy having declined to a record low of around 37 years. On the basis of the Zambian experience, some broad conclusions are made regarding what needs to be done both in Africa and among the continent’s donors.

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Aid effectiveness in Tanzania: the case of DANIDA aid: How can aid be delivered more effectively?

Source: Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), Tanzania

The Workshop to discuss Aid Effectiveness in Africa was convened by the Economic Research Bureau (ERB) and the Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF) in collaboration with the Overseas Development Council (ODC). This Workshop was a fellow-up action after a number of case studies on aid effectiveness had been completed in a number of countries: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania and Zambia. The aim of the Workshop was to look into how aid relations and aid management could be improved and the impact of the economic crisis on aid effectiveness to improve aid effectiveness.

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The Loan Contraction Process in Africa – Making Loans Work for the Poor

Source: AFRODAD

AFRODAD commissioned studies in five selected African countries - Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia - to critically analyse the role of internal factors in Africa’s debt crisis. These studies seek to shed light on the link and contribution of debt management mechanisms to the mounting external debt. AFRODAD believes that if appropriate external borrowing strategies and good internal management of external loan resources were put in place, Africa’s external debt would become sustainable.

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External Aid Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate in Ghana

Source: African Economic Research Consortium

Since the early 1980s when Ghana began measures to halt the downturn of the economy and move on a path of sustained growth and development, the country has attracted tremendous donor assistance. From about 4% of GDP in 1980, official development assistance rose to 10% in 1990 and has generally remained at that level ever since. This overwhelming dependence on external aid inflows has made the Ghanaian economy vulnerable to policy conditionalities that accompany such assistance.

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The distribution of expenditure tax burden before and after tax reform: The case of Cameroon

Source: African Economic Research Consortium

This paper examines the incidence of indirect taxation in Cameroon in 1983, 1996 and 2001. Using household surveys for these three years, the paper looks into which consumption taxes are progressive and determines if changes in tax policy influenced the welfare of the poor. The paper suggests that the incidence of expenditure taxes changes with the changing economic environment and reveals that the indirect tax reforms of 1994 and 1999 have been generally pro-poor. In the aggregate, consumption taxes became more progressive than before, partly due to changing consumption patterns following the introduction of new taxes or replacement of old ones.

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Enhancing aid relationships in Tanzania: IMG Report 2005: Towards increased African ownership over aid initiatives: the case of

Source: Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), Tanzania

This report, prepared by the Independent Monitoring Group, assesses progress since 2002 on action to redefine relationships between the Government of Tanzania (GOT) and Development Partners (DPs) in conceptualising and managing development, in the broader definition of local ownership of the development agenda, and in enhancing transparency and accountability in the delivery and utilisation of aid. The redefinition of aid relationships was intended as a prelude for the GOT to take the necessary steps to provide leadership in designing and managing the development process and in enhancing effectiveness of aid and other public resources.

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Aid, Industrialisation and Economic Development in Tanzania: Some New Ideas and Old Debates

Source: Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), Tanzania

The topic of aid and development has dominated the international community and nation-states since the early 1970s. More recently, the subject has taken centre stage of the development debate in the light of the shift from bilateralism and multilateralism and the growing influence of globalisation which is increasingly eroding the role of aid in favour of investment. In the context of developing countries, like Tanzania, a debate has also emerged on what sector policy thrusts should underpin economic development. Should industrialisation take the lead of should agriculture continue to be the backbone of the economy? This policy dialogue paper attempts to address these topical isues from a historical and current perspective and identifies the challenges which confront Tanzania in the context of these issues and suggests the kind of policies and strategies that need to be adopted to address the identified challenges.

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Aid, Development and democracy in Lesotho, 1966-1996

Source: Southern African Regional Institute for Policy Studies (SARIPS), Zimbabwe

The paper examines historical trends and patterns of aid and unravels its interface with development and democracy in Lesotho. It identifies three different periods and considers the characteristics of each.

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